Local elections in Turkey – and who wins Istanbul – could decide the future

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once said this whoever wins Istanbul will win Turkey. If that is the case, the stakes for Sunday’s election are high as residents across the country of 85 million people prepare to elect their local leaders and administrators.

The importance of this weekend’s vote is so vital that political analysts are speculating that a victory by Istanbul’s incumbent mayor, center-left Ekrem Imamoglu, will make him the leading candidate for Turkey’s president in 2028.

That’s the final thing Erdogan wants, after seeing his conservative, Islamist-sympathizing Justice and Development Party, referred to as the AK Party or AKP in Turkey, defeated by Imamoglu and the more secular, moderate Republican People’s Party (CHP) in the elections to the city in 2019, Erdogan was so irritated by the election results that he called a second election, only to see Imamoglu defeat the AK Party’s candidate for mayor by a fair greater margin.

Sunday’s opposition victory could set the country in a brand new direction, posing a serious challenge to Erdogan and the AK Party’s long grip on power. Erdogan himself rose to prominence as mayor of Istanbul in the Nineties before later becoming president. Now he’s pushing hard for his party’s candidate for mayor, Murat Kurum, a 47-year-old former minister of environment and urbanization.

“Istanbul stands out as a very important political battle point” – Arda Tunca, – an Istanbul-based economist from PolitikYol told CNBC. The city is home to 16 million people, which suggests it’s more populous than 20 of the 27 European Union countries.

In turn, Turkey, as NATO’s second largest army and the important economic and political crossroads between East and West, has emerged as a worldwide player in recent years, playing a major mediating role in conflicts similar to the Ukraine-Russian war and brokering large investments and agreements trade with the wealthy Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

“Many countries in the world are run by cabinets of ministers, but Istanbul – larger than a lot of these countries – is run by a mayor. It’s strange, nevertheless it also shows how vital it’s to win in Istanbul,” Tunca said.

Major Turkish cities such as Istanbul and the capital Ankara will be key races to watch. Both were won by the opposition in 2019.

“Municipal elections in Turkey often serve as a political barometer ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections that will be held in 2028.” said Kristin Ronzi, risk analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at consulting firm RANE.

“While candidates’ platforms in local elections reflect local issues that affect the daily lives of Turkish citizens, local elections could set the stage for the next presidential elections.”

Despite years of economic turmoil and inflation running at over 65% and at an all-time low, Tunca believes Erdogan’s AK Party, which has long dominated nationally, will win the weekend’s contest. He attributes this to the opposition itself, which he describes as his biggest enemy.

“For the opposition, the main challenge is weak politicians and disorganized politics. The main problem of the opposition is the opposition itself,” he said.

A large opposition coalition came together in May 2023 in an attempt to oust Erdogan from the presidency in Turkey’s last general election. The result was a major defeat and disappointment for the opposition, led by Imamoglu’s CHP.

Some in Turkey blame it on the fact that the popular Imamoglu himself, now 52, ​​was banned from running for office in the Turkish judiciary, a move that Erdogan’s opponents say was designed by the president to limit competition. The AK Party claims that the ban was caused by tax crimes, while CHP supporters say it was purely political.

“Even though the AKP is governing the country very badly and Turkey’s economic conditions are deteriorating, the AKP will again be the winner of the upcoming elections,” Tunca assured.

Ronzi from Team Rane sees the competition as more of a draw.

“Poll data on the Istanbul mayoral race indicates a tight race,” she said. The opposition is now more divided than before, which suggests multiple opposition candidates could split the vote.

Still, she said, “accurate polling data from some key elections indicate that the CHP enjoys significant support in these municipalities. If CHP candidates win the primary races, it will show that they can overcome political fragmentation among opposition parties.”

These candidates would then “likely be positioned as potential presidential candidates ahead of the 2028 presidential election due to their ability to garner public support [and] unite opposition voters,” she added.

Meanwhile, analysts are watching to see how the results will impact Erdogan’s next moves and whether the already unequal political environment will become even less democratic.

The nonprofit Freedom House, in its 2023 Freedom in the World country report on Turkey, described Erdogan and his AK Party as “increasingly authoritarian in recent years, consolidating significant power through constitutional changes and the jailing of opponents and critics.”

“The deepening economic crisis and the upcoming elections (…) have given the government a new incentive to suppress dissent and limit public discourse,” the report reads.

CNBC reached out to the Turkish Presidency Office for comment.

According to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, the loss of Erdogan’s party may only exacerbate these trends, not weaken them.

“If the president’s faction takes back the city from the opposition on March 31, he may feel comfortable enough to focus on more positive steps in building a legacy,” he said. he wrote in the article for a think tank. “But failure could mean it intensifies nativist and populist policies at home and abroad.”