The competition to run city hall in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city and economic dynamo, is in some ways between one man who participates in the vote and one other who doesn’t.
The first is incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a rising political opposition star who won a surprise victory in 2019 and is widely seen as a possible presidential candidate.
The second is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who served as mayor of Istanbul many years ago and, since Imamoglu’s victory, has desired to return his hometown to the control of the ruling Justice and Development Party.
Their results will probably be decided by Sunday’s local elections, which in many respects will shape Turkey’s political future.
A victory for Erdogan’s party would enable it to regain political and financial clout in running Turkey’s largest city, further strengthening the position of a frontrunner whom critics accuse of leading the country into autocracy. However, a victory for the incumbent mayor could reinvigorate the anti-Erdogan opposition and push Imamoglu towards the next presidential election in 2028, when he could face Erdogan.
“These elections will define the nature of the political race in Turkey for years to come,” said Sinan Ulgen, director of Edam, an Istanbul-based research organization.
The vote comes amid a chronic cost of living crisis that has seen the value of Turkey’s currency plummet and lots of people feel poorer. It also followed presidential and parliamentary elections last May that gave Erdogan one other term, dashing the hopes of a coalition of opposition parties that banded together to attempt to oust him.
In that election, Erdogan secured victory despite widespread voter anger over inflation, which has soared to greater than 80 percent, and criticism that his government didn’t respond quickly to massive earthquakes that killed greater than 53,000 people in southern Europe in February 2023 Turkey.
The opposition’s defeat damaged its morale and the coalition fell apart.
Many opposition voters now see Imamoglu as uniquely capable of beating Erdogan’s party, a lot in order that they predict he could grow to be Turkey’s next president.
“If Imamoglu wins in Istanbul again, people will think that the chance of defeating Erdogan has not disappeared,” said Seda Demiralp, a professor of political science at Isik University in Istanbul.
Voters will select mayors and other city officials across Turkey on Sunday, but most of the attention will give attention to Istanbul because of its size and political and economic importance.
Istanbul, home to roughly 16 million people and positioned on the Bosphorus between Europe and Asia, generates much of Turkey’s economic output. The metropolitan commune employs roughly 90,000 staff, many of them working in municipal firms whose directors are appointed by the mayor. All this offers whoever sits in the city hall considerable opportunities to reward fans with city positions and contracts.
The race can also be personal. Erdogan, 70, grew up in Istanbul, where his father worked as a ferry captain. His own political profession took off when he won an upset victory and have become mayor of the city from 1994 to 1998. Many residents praised him for his hands-on management, which focused on quality of life issues in the ancient city: cleansing up polluted streets and waterways and expanding the water and sewage networks.
Although he later became prime minister and president and technically worked in the capital, Ankara, he often speaks of his love for Istanbul, whose wealthy history, cosmopolitan elite and booming tourism sector have long made it the jewel of Turkey.
Erdogan’s party maintained control of the city for the higher part of 25 years after his election.
That’s why it was such an enormous blow to Erdogan’s party when 52-year-old Imamoglu defeated its candidate in 2019. Erdogan’s party alleged electoral irregularities, and the Turkish electoral commission ordered a repeat of the elections.
And Mr. Imamoglu won this too, by a fair greater margin.
In an try and reclaim the city, Erdogan has sided with Murat Kurum, a former minister of cities and environment in Erdogan’s government and a current lawmaker from his party.
Kurum, 47, touted himself as a practical technocrat who would expand services and transform neighborhoods in Istanbul to guard residents from potential earthquakes, that are a significant problem in the city and which seismologists say could soon be hit by large, potentially damaging a whole lot of hundreds of structures .
“We imagine an Istanbul in which none of our households will no longer be afraid of earthquakes,” he said last Sunday during a big election rally on the runway of the old airport. “All our homes will be safe.”
He accused Mr. Imamoglu of mismanaging the city.
“Today, Istanbul is restless and unhappy in the hands of an inappropriate administration,” he said.
He referred to Istanbul as “the city that gave us our leader” as a present, Mr. Erdogan, and promised to satisfy his wishes.
“Our leader entrusted you to us,” he said.
Erdogan then took the stage to deliver an extended speech in which he accused Imamoglu of using the city to run for senior positions.
“Istanbul is at a crossroads,” he said. “On the one hand, there are those who only say “I.” On the other hand, there are those that say “only Istanbul”.
Many individuals who got here to the rally spoke at length about their love for Erdogan and the way he runs the country, not to say Kuruma.
“We are here to support Erdogan,” said Erkan Kirici, 49, a garment factory employee. “It is developing our country, and we want the country to move forward.”
A couple of days later, at a separate, smaller rally, Mr. Imamoglu addressed people on the street from his campaign bus, raising issues of sewage disposal, parking, free transit cards and milk for low-income families.
He described himself as the underdog, noting that not only Erdogan but in addition several ministers from his government showed up in Istanbul to support Kurum.
“They allegedly want to take back Istanbul. From who? From the people themselves!” he said. “A subway built by you or a subway built by me – they all belong to the people. They think the positions they are elected to are theirs.”
In the crowd, Suna Hisman, 40, and her sister cheered as they heard the mayor’s jokes and waved Turkish flags.
“We love him,” she said. “We support him and, God willing, he will become our president.”
The next national elections in Turkey are expected at the end of Erdogan’s term in 2028, but some Turks expect that he’ll strive to remain in power longer. He is currently serving the second of two presidential terms allowed by the Constitution. However, calling parliament for early elections could allow him to run for one other term or he could seek to vary the structure.
Erdogan’s critics accuse him of undermining Turkish democracy by utilizing the government to silence dissidents, take over the judiciary and intimidate the media. Some analysts fear that his party’s victory in Istanbul could further embolden Erdogan, accelerating such efforts.
“If the opposition loses now, we will face a long period without elections and with a consolidated central government that, in my opinion, is already highly authoritarian,” said Ms. Demiralp, a professor of political science.
Erdogan and his supporters reject the notion that he’s an aspiring autocrat, pointing to his and his party’s long history of electoral success.
Gulsin Harman reporting contributed.
