As the Houthi militant group in Yemen steps up attacks on ships in the Red Sea – allegedly in response to what it calls Israeli “attacks”genocidal crimes” in Gaza – the United States and the United Kingdom provided many responses military strikes in the last week. The United States also re-listed this group a global terrorist organization.
We hope these attacks will put pressure on the Iran-allied Houthis to withdraw. However, this will not occur. Short of a whole halt to Israel’s war in Gaza and a 180-degree shift in Western support for Israel’s approach, there’s little to dissuade the Houthis from changing course in the foreseeable future.
There are three foremost reasons for this, none of that are primarily related to Iran’s regional strategy.
Yahya Ahrab/EPA
The group has already survived years of air raids
The first and most evident reason is the Houthi movement, whose political wing is often called Ansara of Allahit had already withstood years of airstrikes during the 2015-2022 war with the Saudi-led and Western-backed coalition.
Previously, the Houthis fought six wars against Yemen’s central government between 2004 and 2010. Guerrilla warfare is nothing latest to them, and harassing ships off their coast doesn’t require sophisticated weapons.
The blockade which have accompanied much of the recent war (which is currently in an uneasy truce), have also helped the Houthis improve their arms smuggling networks from Iran, in addition to our own home weapons production.
As a result, airstrikes alone are unlikely to deal a knockout blow to their military capabilities and will almost definitely increase their appetite for combat.
This is because they’ll – for the first time – place their actions more firmly in the context of the fight against the US and Israel, in their opinion slogan: “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, curse to the Jews, victory to Islam.”
As opposition grows, Houthis discover ‘quasi-legality’
The second reason they’re unlikely to be deterred is more necessary but less understood since it pertains to Yemen’s internal politics.
The Houthis now control much of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, which is home to about 70% of the population. The people of those regions have been experiencing severe and structural violence from the Houthis for years. This includes:
Yahya Arhab/EPA
It is vital to notice that this was done by a Saudi-led coalition and the internationally recognized government of Yemen Also was accused of committing war crimes and serious human rights violations in Yemen, incl merciless bombardment civilian population and civilian infrastructure.
At least 150,000 It is estimated that many individuals were brutally killed during the war that began in 2015, although collecting such data has been a challenge data are significant. This also doesn’t include the many hundreds of deaths preventable starvation and disease.
The Houthis’ behavior in power has made them deeply unpopular. Disagreement is dangerous due to sophistication system repression and neighborhood supervision The Houthis imposed measures in areas they control. But Yemenis began taking to the streets in protest last 12 months anyway Ibb and the besieged city With and from.
Then on September 26, just before Hamas attacked southern Israel and the Israeli bombing of Gaza, Yemenis massively defied the authorities.
Protests in the capital Sanaa marked the anniversary of the 1962 revolution that overthrew the country’s leader, Imam Zaydi, Mohammed al-Badr – and with him based on kinship autocracy is many Yemenis demand the Houthis to search for Down reinstate.
Seeing this (accurately) as an indication against them, the Houthis were shocked. Amnesty International reported that they responded with a “disturbing wave of arrests” and a “draconian show of force.”
Against the backdrop of growing dissent at home, Houthi actions and Western retaliation have given the group the gift of “quasi-legality” – say Yemeni analysts. The U.S.-led strikes also lend credence to Houthi demands that critics “they closed their mouths”
Equally necessary, U.S. attacks could boost Houthi military recruitment efforts. And that might help them attempt to take over government-controlled oil wells Marib again, which suggests the group must grow to be economically sustainable.
Osama Yahya/EPA
Anger against the West is growing across the region
The third reason the Houthis are unlikely to be deterred by airstrikes or terrorist designations is that their actions express the broader region’s anger over Israel’s war in Gaza, which has to this point claimed the lives of 25,000 Palestiniansand many years of Western support for Israel’s policies in occupied Gaza and the West Bank.
They also tapped into deep grievances about broader Western policies and its history of strengthening unpopular regimes in the face of popular anti-government efforts. Change. This includes sales weapons and giving political legitimacy to authoritarian regimes in exchange for what the West sees as “stability“in the order of the world.
Yemenis, nevertheless, are fully aware that the rise and expansion of the Houthi were made possible by the same external pressure on stabilitywhich got here at the expense of Yemenis’ ability to choose local solutions Down local problems.
By focusing on defending Palestinians in their actions, the Houthis have found a strategy to discredit their domestic adversaries – something that has largely eluded them for 20 years. This will make it even tougher to remove them from power and will likely goal unusual Yemenis for further violence from them.
