Niger – a landlocked country of 25 million people situated in a single of the most unstable parts of the world – recently announced suspended military cooperation with the United States.
Niger has been one for over a decade one of the most reliable in America allies in the Sahel. The Sahel region, which stretches across Africa from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, is one of them the largest poorly governed regions in the world. Terrorism, banditry, trade (in people, weapons, drugs), cattle rustling and armed robbery flourished in the region.
Over the past few years, democracy in the region has been under threat. Were seven coups has existed since 2020, 4 of which were successful. The coup in Niger in July 2023 was the latest, after these in Guinea, Burkina Faso AND Mali.
Juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have identified three principal reasons for the military takeover: growing insecurity, economic stagnation and corruption.
After the military took power in Niger, the United States didn’t initially describe it as a coup. This was intended to preserve some elements of military cooperation with the country. It could be a coup to call it a coup limit security assistance The United States could provide for this country.
In October 2023, the United States finally called the event a coup, thus limiting security cooperation. The US had 650 soldiers has been working in Niger since December 2023.
For over a decade, I even have checked out this region through the prism of security and politics. Based on the research I did, including an article written in 2018 regarding the US drone base in Agadez, I imagine that Niger’s decision to finish military cooperation with the US may have a dramatic impact on security in the region. Some of the consequences could include reduced surveillance of insurgent groups, reduced intelligence sharing, and a possible escalation of attacks by terrorist groups.
History
The first deployment of US troops to Niger has begun 2013, when 100 soldiers they were deployed and operated from a military base at Niamey Airport, which was shared with France. Washington later built one of his own The biggest drone base in Africa in Agadez-Niger. The database made it possible to implement it intelligence, statement and reconnaissance activitieswhich covered almost the entire Sahel region.
Because the drone base “Air Base 201” was authorized in 2019, it was the principal US military asset in the Sahel region. The information collected from the database turned out to be essential in tracking down and combating insurgent groups operating in the region.
In addition to the drone base, the US also supported Niger with military aid ahead of the 2023 military coup.
Why the crack?
The first reason for ending military cooperation is the cessation of financial support from the US.
Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world and is depending on foreign aid.
Before the July 2023 military coup, the United States was a major contributor to assist for the country. In 2018 The US allocated $437 million to the country to strengthen Niger’s agricultural and livestock sector. The United States also supported the country’s counterinsurgency fight before the coup.
The coup radically modified relations. In October 2023 (three months after the coup), the US cut off over 500 million dollars for aid to Niger. This affected the financing of the country’s security.
The second reason is that the junta in Niger has concluded that the United States is not willing to cooperate with it. Shortly after the coup, US drone operations took place in Niger limited for surveillance to guard U.S. assets. The United States stopped sharing intelligence with the junta in Niger, putting pressure on it to relinquish power.
This has hampered Niger’s counterterrorism operations as intelligence sharing is crucial in tracking and planning attacks on insurgent groups.
This involved the issue of the drone base. The base is the principal source of surveillance and intelligence gathering. However, there is a Usage agreement for 10 years which expires this 12 months (2024). The junta may resolve it is the right time to chop off military relations with the US in order to not resume use of the base. It is unclear what is going to occur to the drone base now that Niger is cutting ties with the US.
The sudden reduction in military cooperation has frustrated the Nigerien authorities, who to argue that the United States is currently operating illegally in this country.
The United States is currently attempting to conclude recent security cooperation agreements and is considering supplying American reconnaissance drones to countries resembling Ghana, Ivory Coast and Benin.
Moreover, a significant source of concern for the United States is the deepening relationship between Niger and Russia. In January 2024, Niger agreed to strengthen military ties with Russia. This worries the United States and its allies. Apart from funding cuts, one of the reasons Niger is turning towards Russia is US reluctance supplying Niger with weapons obligatory to fight the insurgency.
Security implications
The Sahel region is an enormous area where American surveillance drones have proven useful identifying terrorist locations. If U.S.-Niger relations are permanently severed, surveillance and intelligence gathering will probably be severely disrupted even when the United States moves to other countries. This is because Niger is strategically situated and drones flying from the country can cover much of the country’s territory Sahel and West Africa.
The proven fact that there was a rise in the number of terrorist attacks in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso as the 2023 coup in Niger suggests these fears could also be justified.
Terrorist groups could make the most of the situation and change into more daring. Surveillance drones are used to discourage terrorist groups.
I imagine it is in the interest of all parties to conduct a respectful dialogue. Niger’s government accused the U.S. of “condescending attitude“I he tries to force it junta to choose from the US and Russia. With Russia lurking around the corner, the United States must change its approach to avoid losing this strategic partner.
