Wrong kill three Israeli hostages by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) over the weekend significantly increased pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to simply accept a ceasefire in the war with Hamas.
The Biden administration is exerting maximum pressure to persuade the Israeli government that the disadvantages of its conduct of the war, particularly the shockingly high civilian death toll in Palestine, currently outweigh the potential advantages.
During a visit to Israel earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Netanyahu and his cabinet that they might must end the offensive until the recent 12 months.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Israel over the weekend to deliver the same message, emphasizing that the United States wanted see results regarding its demands on Israel to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is currently on a trip to the Middle East, including parking in Israel to debate “the final cessation of ground operations and high-intensity air attacks.”
Earlier this month, Austin warned that Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians risked driving them into the arms of the enemy – replacing a “tactical victory with a strategic defeat.”
Finally, President Joe Biden, who won great acclaim in Israel for his visit immediately after the October 7 Hamas attacks, said: publicly warned that Israel’s “massive bombing” of Gaza is causing a loss of international support.
Miriam Alster/AP
The United States, if not Israel (which considers the UN biased against itself), shall be concerned about the December 12 UN General Assembly vote demanding a ceasefire. Although the resolution is unenforceable, the overwhelming majority – 153 of 190 members – clearly indicated growing international opposition to the war.
In October, a majority of 120 people supported a similar resolution. The United States stood out as the only member of the UN Security Council to vote against the December resolution.
Reduced credibility of Israeli forces
To emphasize these messages, a US intelligence assessment leaked claims that 40–45% of the 29,000 ground-based air-to-surface munitions Israel has utilized in Gaza are “dumb” (unguided) bombs. This disclosure effectively undermines the IDF’s claim that its attacks only took place at proven Hamas targets.
Details of the accidental killing of three hostages that got here to light over the weekend further reduce the credibility of Israeli forces’ claims that they’re acting in full respect of international humanitarian law. The three of them stuck together white cloththat they had their hands up and shouted at the soldiers in Hebrew.
Stringer/EPA
An Israeli Defense Forces official said the case was “inconsistent with our rules of engagement” and: the investigation was ongoing on the highest level”.
The tragedy gave recent impetus to the campaign led by the families of the greater than 100 remaining hostages and their quite a few supporters. They want the government to prioritize negotiations to release prisoners fairly than war with Hamas. There were demonstrations in Tel Aviv after news of the death of three hostages.
For now, Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant remain adamant that the operation to destroy Hamas must proceed. Gallant just said that intense military pressure towards Hamas will create conditions for the release of more hostages.
Netanyahu will likely proceed the conflict
Netanyahu has many reasons to proceed the war.
In the inevitable post-war investigation into the security lapses that led to the horrific Hamas attack on October 7, he was sure to receive the brunt of the blame. This investigation won’t happen while the war continues.
But Netanyahu shall be aware that the only likelihood to avoid withering criticism that might force him from office is to follow through on his promise to completely eliminate Hamas and find and get well the remaining hostages. It will take for much longer than Biden seems willing to permit him.
Unfortunately for Netanyahu, he cannot yet declare victory based on the beheading of the Hamas leader. The political leader of the Gaza movement, Yahya Sinwar, and its military leader, Mohammed Deif, are still at large. They are probably situated somewhere in the vast network of tunnels under Gaza. If Israel were to capture or kill the two, Netanyahu could seek significant vindication.
ATEF SAFADI/EPA
The Biden administration’s pressure worries Netanyahu less. He is adept at looking down on American presidents, especially Democrats. IN 2009 opposed President Barack Obama’s call to freeze settlement construction in the West Bank.
In 2015 even protocol broken accepting a Republican invitation to go to Washington to handle a joint session of Congress without calling Obama.
In Israel, Netanyahu is helped by the indisputable fact that Israelis have only a partial picture of the toll their country’s campaign is taking up Palestinian civilians.
ABC Global Affairs editor John Lyons, who lived in Jerusalem for a few years and understands Hebrew, reported after a recent visit to Israel:
[…] most Israelis don’t see the images (on their televisions) of injured Palestinian women and youngsters or the destruction of Gaza in kilometer after kilometer of rubble […] Israelis observe a cleansed war […] They are confused as to why the world is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the high rate of civilian casualties.
Hostage negotiations resume
That said, Netanyahu bowed to the hostage lobby by reversing the decision that Mossad chief David Barnea should stop negotiations in Qatar to release more hostages. Barnea met the Prime Minister of Qatar in Europe last week. No details were available at the time of writing.
But Hamas still does it make demands which can be difficult for Israel to simply accept: a ban on further hostage releases until the end of the war; and insisting that the agreement include the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including known militants.
In the background, each Israel and the United States are concerned that support for Hamas in the West Bank has increased significantly since the starting of the war.
Questionnaire between November 22 and December 2, the Palestinian Center for Political Research and Polling indicated that support for Hamas increased from 12% in September to 44% in early December. This is also evident in the number of green Hamas flags visible after the release of Palestinian prisoners during lulls in fighting in late November.
The poll even showed that support for Hamas in Gaza increased from 38% to 42% during the same period.
Netanyahu could also be lucky if his forces find Sinwar and Deif. Meanwhile, the decision to proceed the war is his.
