In July 2023, Niger’s army seized power in a coup, just two years after the country’s first transition to civilian rule. The coup clearly highlighted the role of foreign countries in Niger’s politics.
Before the coup, France and the US were the essential countries essential security allies from Niger. However, the coup leaders, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, spoke openly about their antagonism towards France, the country’s former colonial ruler, and ordered the French army to withdraw.
Now the eye of many individuals in Niger has turned to Russia.
Since the coup, several analysts have said so highlighted the role of Russia. Some analysts and regional experts consider Russia could have played a job directly or not directly in a military takeover.
Others (including me) claim that Russia is increasing its control over the country and is actively trying to learn from the coup. This has been seen recently in Russia and Niger Agreement develop military ties.
Although the small print of this partnership are still unclear, Russia has promised to step up “combat readiness” Niger army. In addition, discussions are held about partners within the areas of agriculture and energy.
I used to be tests security dynamics within the region for over a decade. The Niger junta’s affair with Russia has potential consequences for peace and security within the region and beyond.
I even have identified three essential potential implications for Niger and other allied countries:
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escalation of tension between Niger and France
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discontent between Niger and its regional allies
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likely disruption a $13 billion gas pipeline project from Nigeria to the European Union via Niger.
Russia within the region
After the 2023 coup, France and the regional economic bloc Ecowas endangered use force to revive the deposed president.
Russia warned against such a move.
The military junta then expelled the French soldiers. France responded by closing its embassy in Niger.
The US also limited military and economic cooperation. Washington has cut aid to the country by greater than 500 million dollars and he removed the country from his own duty-free export program.
The European Union too introduced sanctions. Niger then canceled its security and migration agreements with the European bloc.
Eco-friendly sanctioned Niger. Another vital ally, Nigeria, cut off the electricity and imposed further sanctions.
Sanctions, combined with increased insecurity, have weakened and isolated Niger.
Instead of stepping down, the junta searched for alternative partners – akin to Russia and China. It also recently joined Mali and Burkina Faso announce withdrawal from Ecowas.
For its part, Russia positioned itself as a reliable ally. In December 2023 The Russian delegation visited Niger and in January 2024, the Prime Minister of Niger, Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine visited Moscow to debate military and economic ties.
Russia is not any stranger to this region. It was created within the last three years security arrangements with the juntas ruling Niger’s neighbors: Mali and Burkina Faso. This was done through Wagner groupa Russian-backed private security company whose African operations have been renamed African Corps in early 2024
Since 2021, Russian military advisors have been operating in Mali. In addition, amongst others Wagner’s group has 400 mercenaries within the country. Russia too provided military equipment to the country in 2022
Implications
There are three essential potential consequences for Niger and other allied countries.
First, the potential escalation of tensions between Niger and France. This will occur if Niger grants Russia uranium exploration rights, which can affect French firms with existing concessions. Niger suspended recent mining licenses and is currently auditing existing ones. This may have an effect on French firms. France has he vowed to guard its economic interests in Niger.
This is dependent upon how the partnership between Russia and Niger develops, specifically on how Niger intends to pay for its share in any military cooperation. If this concerns the Wagner group, as is the case with the safety partnerships between Russia and Burkina Faso and Mali, the query mining concessions will come into play. Mali and Burkina Faso paid for Wagner’s involvement offering mining concessions in exchange for weapons, ammunition and mercenaries.
Second, any security ties involving the Wagner group would create further discontent between Niger and its regional allies, especially Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon.
After the coup, Niger announced that it was departure G5 Sahel, which was established to coordinate security operations within the Sahel. This drew attention to the country’s participation in Multinational Joint Task Force.
Both institutions were established to combat insurgencies within the region, and Niger has actively contributed to this. Other countries within the joint task force, akin to Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and the Republic of Benin, might be wary of cooperating with Niger if it stays in lively partnership with Wagner, which is notorious for violating human rights.
The third likely serious consequence of Russia’s involvement concerns Niger’s relations with the EU. The EU is currently constructing, amongst others: $13 billion gas pipeline from Nigeria to the bloc via Niger. The pipeline project aimed to scale back the EU’s dependence on Russian gas.
Given Russia’s antipathy towards the EU, I consider that Russia could use the safety alliance to disrupt the project with a purpose to secure gas supplies to the EU.
The junta could use the pipeline project as leverage against the EU, demanding large financial concessions, putting the project in danger and strengthening Russia’s position.
Migration is one other area of contention within the EU. Niger now allows mass illegal migration through its territory to proceed to Europe. This will create more problems for the EU.
Russia’s lively presence in Niger could change the region’s security and economic landscape and impact all parties.
I maintain my initial position that as a substitute of using force, the Niger junta needs to be encouraged to revive democracy as quickly as possible. At the identical time, some sanctions needs to be lifted to encourage dialogue and reduce Russia’s influence.
