There is an anonymous commenter who desired to be a troll about my prediction performance and where I used to be unsuitable in regards to the technology. I discuss my public predictions and delve into nuclear fusion and other specific topics.
What I wrote a few years ago about what emdrive and Mach Effect researchers and that fusion startups could succeed was not a prediction with specific claims and timelines.
There were articles through which I wrote and repeated the claims and predictions of corporations or technologists. I’d say that XYZ Company has a roadmap to attain something. That’s like saying SLS (Space Launch System) has been funded and is scheduled to launch in 2016. IF NOT
Nuclear fusion and forecasts
After 6 minutes of this video from a number of years ago, I say that NONE of the nuclear fusion startups or projects have turned on light bulbs just like the 1951 nuclear fission reactor.
I argue that nuclear fusion has the potential to ultimately dramatically improve energy production. However, there are no limits to funds for research and technology development.
However, there are many challenges related to net energy generation, reaching industrial energy production and scaling up the provision chain. Deuterium and tritium combustion systems would want to extend the supply of tritium.
I do not expect fusion to generate even one gigawatt of continuous power for the grid before 2035. It’s not inconceivable that it is going to occur, but it surely’s not greater than a 50% probability.
There are many interesting and useful corporations.
Fusion corporations proceed to receive funding and may eventually succeed. They generate nuclear reactions.
In July 2024, the Fusion Industry Association (FIA) published its latest annual report, “The Global Fusion Industry in 2024.”
Total investment within the fusion industry has reached greater than $7.1 billion, with an extra $900 million in recent financing since last 12 months.
Government funding increased significantly, increasing 57% in 12 months to $426 million.
Notable investments include $100 million for Xcimer, $90 million for SHINE Technologies and $65 million for Helion.
Growth and employment within the fusion industry. The survey included responses from 45 private fusion corporations, up from 43 the previous 12 months.
Employment within the private fusion sector has grown significantly and now employs over 4,000 people worldwide.
89% of respondents expect fusion to deliver electricity to the grid by the top of the 2030s, and 70% expect to achieve this milestone by the top of 2035.
Other things that were spent more cash on and didn’t produce much useful results:
Over $500 billion for the F-35 program and aircraft.
$26 billion was spent on the SLS program, and there was just one defective flight during its test flight. About $11 billion was allocated for the Constellation program, which broadly matched the SLS goal.
I said that in relation to energy, if you happen to just want protected programs that can produce good results, then just finance molten salt nuclear fission or advanced nuclear fission projects. You may just proceed to scale up and improve solar and stationary battery storage.
What is a forecast?
A forecast on public platforms is a press release a couple of future event or consequence that specifies:
Event – a transparent, unambiguous description of what is going to occur, including all relevant parameters (e.g. “The temperature in Tokyo on July 1, 2025 will exceed 30°C”).
Resolution criteria – explicit, objective criteria by which a prediction will probably be judged as true or false. This includes:
Source of truth – a reliable, publicly available source or method for verifying a post-event result (e.g. “Data from the official records of the Japan Meteorological Agency”).
Time frame – a particular date or period inside which the result have to be resolved (e.g. “The measurement must be taken at exactly 12:00 local time on July 1, 2025”).
Falsifiability – the forecast have to be constructed in such a way that it will possibly be definitively proven to be true or false based on resolution criteria.
This means:
The criteria must not be open to interpretation.
There must be no ambiguity about how the result’s measured or reported.
I even have written over 35,000 articles. Almost all of the articles weren’t predictions. If you discover greater than 3,500 articles with prediction problems, please let me know.
Sometimes I predicted, for instance, when Canada would reach a certain population level. I often tag articles with predictions. But I also echoed the predictions of others comparable to Ray Kurzweil and Bill Gates.
Here is a listing of public predictions that got here true in 2024.
On November 8, 2025, I predicted that Tesla’s stock price would reach $450 inside 90 days. This happened after the share price doubled. The price has since dropped to $379.
Independent driving
I predict significant success for autonomous cars in 2025. People who do not like this could stop reading these articles.
Great progress has been made with Tesla Full autonomous driving systems.
Controversial technology and science
I still think it’s price exploring LK99 and room temperature superconductors, but this work is poorly funded. There are many areas where I disagree with capital allocation. I consider that more cash and more open efforts must be allocated to areas of interesting physics. But I do know that poorly funded efforts where scientists are sidelined are areas where progress is slow.
Efforts proceed to review LK99 and superconductors at room temperature. However, the amounts spent and the variety of researchers involved are small.
The source said he also consulted a superconductor specialist after reading Wang Hongyang’s raw test data on LK99-like materials. He said that after a research group from Central South University manages to breed Wang’s samples, final conclusions will probably be drawn pic.twitter.com/hdlCqBLFqw
— Peoplewar2 (@REDLFLAG) December 19, 2024
Global climate finance is around $150 billion a 12 months, and emissions haven’t peaked. The recent AI-powered data center boom will end in a big increase in energy production.
There is talk and commitments being made to bring climate change programs to $300 billion a 12 months by 2035. It appears to be an ineffective mass of useless corruption.
Brian Wang is a futuristic thought leader and popular science blogger with a million monthly readers. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked primary within the Science News Blog rating. It covers many disruptive technologies and trends, including space, robotics, artificial intelligence, medicine, anti-aging biotechnology and nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting-edge technologies, he’s currently a co-founder of a startup and fundraiser for high-potential, early-stage corporations. He is the Head of the Allocation Research Department for investments in deep technologies and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent corporate speaker, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker, and a guest on quite a few radio and podcast interviews. He is open to public speaking and giving advice.
