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Plates at subduction zones they typically move only just a few centimeters per 12 months. However, when the collected stresses on the boundaries of convergent plates are suddenly released, the plates can shift several meters and cause the largest earthquakes. The timing and location of such megathrust earthquakes rely on aspects comparable to the form, roughness, composition and fluid content of the fault.
In addition to the danger they pose, such earthquakes disrupt the slow, long-term changes that occur in subduction zones. The cycle of sudden earthquakes and slow plate movement makes it difficult for scientists to create a single computer model that accurately combines all these features. Seismic cycles and long-term deformation are typically modeled individually, and models that truly try to simulate each processes don’t capture the along-strike changes that help determine the magnitude of a megathrust quake.
describe a brand new subduction model that may higher capture each long-term tectonics and short-duration earthquakes and that’s consistent with existing observations. The model combines several aspects, comparable to buoyant forces that drive the movement of the plates; diffusion and dislocation creep, which describe the flow of fabric within the mantle; and friction between tectonic plates to more accurately capture the mechanics of subduction each over time and along the length of the fault.
The latest model, which simulates movements along a 4,040 x 660 square kilometer area of the fault, predicts plate movement of about 5 centimeters per 12 months and slip ruptures of about 10 meters every few hundred years. The model also accounts for the correlation of longer rupture lengths with larger magnitude earthquakes. (, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL1108212024)
—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox), science author
Quote: Owen, R. (2025), Modeling long and short subduction zones, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250015. Posted on January 10, 2025
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