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A brand new study shows that falling fertility rates will usher in transformative demographic changes over the next 25 years, with major consequences for the global economy.
Three-quarters of nations are projected to have birth rates below the population alternative rate of two.1 children per woman by 2050, research shows published Found Wednesday in The Lancet medical journal.
As a result, 49 countries – mostly in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia – could be answerable for the majority of newborns.
“Future trends in fertility and live birth rates will promote changes in world population dynamics, causing changes in international relations and the geopolitical environment, and highlighting new challenges in migration and global aid networks,” the report authors wrote of their summary.
By 2100, only six countries are expected to have birth rates that replace their population: the African nations of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and Tajikistan in Central Asia.
The report’s authors say the changing demographic landscape could have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts.
In particular, the shrinking labor force in advanced economies would require significant policy and monetary interventions, even when technological advances provide some support.
“As the labor force declines, the total size of the economy will tend to decline, even if output per worker remains the same. In the absence of liberal migration policies, these nations will face many challenges,” Dr. Christopher Murray, lead author of the report and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told CNBC.
“Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics can reduce the economic impact of a shrinking workforce, but some sectors, such as housing, will still be hit hard,” he added.
Baby boom versus bust
The report, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, does not provide figures on the specific impact of demographic change on the economy. However, it highlighted the discrepancy between high-income countries, where birth rates continue to fall, and low-income countries, where birth rates continue to rise.
Between 1950 and 2021, the global total fertility rate (TFR), or the average number of children born to a woman, more than halved, falling from 4.84 to 2.23, as many countries became richer and fewer children were born to women. This trend has been exacerbated by social changes such as increased female labor force participation and policy measures including China’s one-child policy.
Between 2050 and 2100, the global total fertility rate will continue to decline from 1.83 to 1.59. Replacement rate – the number of children a couple would have to replace each other with – is 2.1 in most developed countries.
This is despite the world’s population being projected to grow from 8 billion today to 9.7 billion in 2050, before peaking at around 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. According to to the UN.
In many developed economies, the fertility rate is already much lower than the replacement rate. By mid-century, this category will include the largest economies: China and India, and the birth rate in South Korea will be the lowest in the world and will amount to 0.82.
Meanwhile, in lower-income countries, the share of new births is expected to almost double, from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all new births at the turn of the 20th century. report.
Murray said this could put poorer countries in a “stronger position” to negotiate more ethical and fair migration policies – leverage that might develop into essential as countries develop into more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
