Maria and her husband Alexander are confident that President Vladimir Putin will secure a fifth term as Russia’s leader on this weekend’s presidential elections.
But the couple, who live in Moscow with their three children, aren’t so sure what will happen next. The most vital thing for them is the fear that Putin, emboldened by gaining a brand new six-year term, may announce one other mobilization of soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Aleksandr, 38, who left Russia shortly after Putin announced his first mobilization in September 2022 but recently returned, is even considering leaving the country again, his wife said.
“I only hear about mobilization – that an offensive is planned for the summer and that soldiers need rotation,” Maria, 34, said in a WhatsApp conversation. She didn’t conform to use the couple’s family name for fear of repercussions from the federal government.
Many Russians were concerned about various issues ahead of the vote, which began on Friday and will last three days. Although Russian authorities deny that one other mobilization for war is planned, a way of tension persists.
The concerns appear to be based on the chance that Putin could use his unlimited power to implement changes he had avoided before the vote. Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, certainly one of Russia’s few independent pollsters, said the unrest still mainly affects a minority of Russians who oppose the federal government.
While potential mobilization stays the largest cause for concern, there are also financial and economic concerns. Some Russians worry that the ruble that’s left supported by the federal government after falling last 12 months may depreciate again, raising import costs. Businessmen are concerned about higher taxes, and opposition activists expect more frequent repression of dissent.
“People are very concerned,” said Nina L. Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs on the New School in New York who usually visits Russia. “The uncertainty is the worst because Russians are used to it.”
The concerns reflect the present mood in Russia, where many have learned to hope for the perfect but expect the worst. Adding to the uncertainty is a government that experts say is becoming increasingly authoritarian.
After greater than twenty years in power, Putin shouldn’t be limited by either the opposition party in parliament or a robust civil society. He is subsequently relatively free to act as he pleases.
Some experts say the Kremlin could use the outcomes of the vote – expected to be a landslide victory for Putin – to further suppress dissent and escalate the war in Ukraine, which was intended as a vigorous “special military operation” but has degenerated right into a drudgery that has caused lots of of 1000’s of victims.
“In authoritarian elections, the results are predictable, but the consequences are not,” said Yekaterina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist, in response to written questions from The New York Times. “If the system thinks it has done the right thing and everything is fine, the post-election period may be a time to make unpopular decisions.”
Ms. Schulmann cited for instance Putin’s last re-election in 2018, which was followed by a highly unpopular increase within the retirement age in Russia.
Elections in Russia are tightly managed by the Kremlin through almost total control over the media and state-owned enterprises, whose employees are sometimes forced to vote. The electoral machinery filters out unwanted candidates, and opposition activists have either been forced to flee or ended up in Russian prisons. The country’s most outstanding dissident, Alexei A. Navalny, died last month within the Arctic penal colony where he was imprisoned.
Although the results of the vote is beyond doubt, Russians are still busy with the method. This will be the primary vote since Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
A Moscow consultant working with Russian firms said a few of his clients had deliberately timed recent stock offerings on the Moscow Stock Exchange to happen within the relatively quiet period before the vote. He asked for anonymity in order to not jeopardize his relationships with clients.
According to automotive market analysts, Russian consumers also rushed to purchase cars at first of the 12 months he suggested that the period before the elections may be the perfect time to purchase, since the ruble may be devalued after the voting ends. The number of recent cars sold in Russia in January and February increased by greater than 80 percent in comparison with the identical period last 12 months, According to to Avtostat, an information service about the Russian automobile industry.
Businessmen fear that the federal government will increase taxes after the vote. On Wednesday, Putin said the federal government would draft recent tax rules for people and personal entities, and experts said that will almost definitely mean a tax increase for each groups.
Yevgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at Moscow-based consulting firm PF Capital, said firms were particularly concerned about tax increases and better labor costs. “This would threaten Russia’s competitiveness,” he said.
Nadorshin also noted widespread rumors of one other troop mobilization, which, if it occurred, could further restrict the labor marketplace for businesses, he said.
Volkov, of the Levada Center, said most Russians had adapted to the brand new world after the initial shock of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that followed seven months later. This was largely the results of the federal government’s efforts to spice up morale by ensuring the country’s economy was healthy and injecting money into the economic sector.
“There has been a major redistribution of resources in favor of the majority who feel they can now lead normal lives without being directly involved in the war,” he said, referring to increases in factory employees’ wages and various social advantages.
Nevertheless, he pointed to the growing polarization between Putin’s supporters and opponents.
“Mutual misunderstandings today are greater and more severe than before,” Volkov said.
Many Russian anti-Kremlin activists – those that remain within the country and those that have left – fear a brand new crackdown on dissent.
Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a Russian businessman and opposition activist in London, said he believed dissidents would face a difficult selection between flight or prison after the elections.
“Nothing will help; “the choice will be to either go to prison or leave the country,” he said in a statement interview with Zhivoy Gvozd, an independent Russian news website.
Some analysts, however, have expressed doubts that Putin will do much more than he already has to to quash dissent.
“The system cannot remain in a state of mobilization and stress forever.” he said Aleksandr Kynev, a political scientist living in Russia and specializing in regional politics. “If you give too much power to the security services, they could remove you from power tomorrow,” he said. “Vladimir Putin understands this well.”
Alina Lobzina reporting contributed.
