Ending dangerous Russia and unbelievable United States, the EU throws a big plan to extend defense, which based on Brussels could unlock as much as EUR 800 billion ($ 860 billion).
“The time of illusions has passed,” said the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday.
“We need an increase in European defense. And we need it now. “
However, there are serious questions on how the European Union will approach this header figure.
Even if Europe puts money where her lips are – is it enough to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin and replace America’s military power?
EU countries increased military expenses since the invasion of Russia Ukraine in 2022 – but the return of US President Donald Trump with turbocharging caused urgency.
Trump shocked Europe, attracting support for Ukraine and fueled concerns that he could impose a plan of peace that leaves Moscow’s embroidery.
Even more disturbing are Washington threats cannot bear their NATO allies, and the feeling that Europe can now not count on the protection of the US that has been having fun with for a long time.
If the United States withdraw from Europe, this may occasionally take up an enormous amount of key weapons needed to push Moscow and key labor.
Bruegel Think Tank estimates that to ensure that Europe to scare Russia to discourage a further 250 billion euros annually on defense and provide you with 300,000 more soldiers.
The EU proposal, presented last week, relies on two predominant elements.
The first is to chill out budget rules, which allows governments to spend more on defense – a movement that in itself doesn’t bring more cash on the table.
Von der Leyen, nevertheless, claims that this may generate as much as EUR 650 billion in the next 4 years, if EU countries use it to extend defense expenditure by 1.5 percent of GDP.
The second key part of the plan is more specific in terms of financing, and Brussels proposes to grant the Member States to loans supported by the EU as much as EUR 150 billion.
Von der Leyen claims that the money spent by the EU needs to be spent together on a key weapon made by European producers, because the continent desires to strengthen its own industry.
In addition, the plan from Brussels would also allow the Member States to re -use funds intended for poorer regions and raising curbs in defense investments using a loan shoulder.
Considering that the overwhelming majority of plans are based on EU rule, they will likely be greater than in national capitals than Brussels.
The key European power has already signaled that he wants seriously – probably the next chancellor Friedrich Merz, who tries to interrupt down lots of of billions in defense and infrastructure.
But this emphasis has already reached political obstacles in Berlin, and other countries, akin to France and Italy, are fighting with a high level of debt.
“A large variable here is national decision making – most of the money is under the control of domestic government,” said Ian Lesser from the German Think Tank Marshall Fund.
“This has evolved over the past weeks and it becomes clear that governments are more involved.”
One of the obstacles for a fast re -armament could be when Europe desires to spend money only at home, because the perception of the United States is not any longer a trustworthy partner.
“The limit may not be money, supply may be a restriction, because Europe is still lacking in industrial abilities,” said Lesser.
“The fastest way to build opportunities is to buy American equipment from the shelf for now.”
Three years after Russia has released the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, Brussels claims that it finally seriously becomes serious.
But after quite a few false daws, there continues to be a sense that the block may not require a change in the sea.
Guntram Wolff from Bruegel has to this point called the EU plan “only the first step in the future discussion.”
“He goes in the right direction, but that’s not enough,” said AFP.
Von der Leyen is about up next week to place the meat on the bones of his proposal before the EU summit and reveal further options for “significantly” to extend financing.
“For now, we only have the contours of the idea,” said one of the EU diplomat. “We are still waiting for details.”
Some countries are applying for more ambitious joint loans in the entire EU much like the huge recovery fund established during the Kadid pandemic-but it’s difficult to do to this point from others.
“A true game changer would be a joint borrowing program that focuses on abilities that we don’t have to fill the US gap,” said Wolff.
AFP
AFP
